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98 Posts by Anonymous "sir ignore":
wait for next 4 hr close on model..
gl gt
ok ur ema has more touches, maybe more chop..but more accurate measuring it seems
on some fibo measuring from tun...
yes,the tunnel sig there for short, but the 21 has to lose against last 2 hours as filter to confirm short.
sometimes spikes are not caught this way, but either are the whiplash episodes...
on 4 hr. for trend..only watching the candle and the 8sma...but drawing the channels to see if
I can avoid partial of the slow chop 4 will allow...
u can certainly visually backtest this.
putting the 2 together can secure the 'inside' of a move..with sizing if I am going to layer in then will start at 3 lots..and add at next 4 hr close if direction continues...usually however will take 8-12 lots
if the stop tun, level is close enuff for r/r....this allows so much flex in profit by jus closing at sh fibo..
size matters..
sometimes if against trend will 'reverse vegas' and add more longs at lower short levels (common
practice in hedge/fund positioning).
_____
we now have swiss and euro in the tunnel area..
the weekly trend indicator has given south signal....agree? or neutral..
pair trade..
so a possible position wud be sht euro, sh usd/chf with the wkl trend perhaps down
then I wud go 6/8 sh euro/usd...against 4/6 sht usd/chf....if it momentums then drop the neg side..
if it look range, then bank and double back on neg. side..
-------------------------
planning to close long euro/usd @ 4195 at 4290 asian sunday...
and enter straight or pair....
__________
how abt you...and where did u get the vegas model?
from my colleagues..and have been using it so long that can't change, and have the confidence in the
take profit areas and stop placement on these fibos after leaving the tunnel..144, 169 SMA, 21 SMA
ADX, CCI, STOCH, ...
you answered the question of take profit areas in your answer to Bill...
if in the 1 hr tunnel after it has broken 11 pips, say north, from tunnel AND 21 has increased over prev
21 close..then signal triggered....with stop on other side of tunnel 11-21 below....making nice small stop out of less than 40 down to 20 pip stops..////on the profit side....with today's unusual market, instead of waiting for 55 pips from mid tunnel..I take profit at 31..first fibo..maybe 1/3 units depends on the strength of the move, and then place the stop if straight trading at the prev fibo..more take profit at 55..
and then the stop to prev. fibo..(in the money)...and hold..for conclusion...sometimes making it's run
233 or more...but by then I am not fully loaded, but happy....
___________
by constructing tunnel usd/chf 1 hr..then you can use usd/chf as hedge...watch this interaction
esp. when tunnel is in play both sides...correlation very strong, inverse..but swiss runs slower...
______________-
along with this I also chart the channels, horizontal r/s lines..and listen to subway's chart analysis, :)
1. hedge funds are notorious low performers becuz of size..it's a given..
some hedge speculators can always have very good years..but averages are very small
for hedge funds, including many losing years lately..
private traders can trade circles around them % wise...this is a given and shud be known by all of you..
2. my 1 hr model, with its filters and some (personal to the trader filters) indicators is common floor traders strategy with some of the momentum ma's tweaked as they go for their individual plan for tp's acc. to THEIR money management. One object is to enter positions into the momentum run and set their BEFT (free trades) and accumulate as many as possible, each week. They add their filters and adjust for their particular timing on when they want to be down and when a tp on the system is met, then they TAKE PROFIT early. This is used also mt private traders and discuss their momo moves on other forums. Profit is profit and with the new normal fundyatmosphere, short profits are the norm and let PARTIAL run for long runs. I have had 3 over 240 pips runs from initial entry this year, but at the end they would be maybe 1/8 original position, with profit taken along way, acc. to the rules on where to take tp on a momentum tunnel run. Not that difficult when the tunnel can
show the very close stop that can be employed.
3. The 4 hr is a very efficient momentum runner which smooths the chop and will run very long trades
but will stop out a little later than most want, causing a 'close now or fly by instruments' dilemma, to be mastered internally, nerves.
The 4 hr has 9 years life with me and the last 5 years has been accurately tuned, tweaked and nurtured to make pips.
Brother Dave now knows my system well and has it on his chartz, the agreements on resistance/channel.tunnel moves is very congruent his system to mine. He enjoys a large % (at 90)of winning trades in 3 instruments I know about. We also discuss what % of the move we can get and match these numbers against 'par'.
The 4 hr is very user friendly, the 1 hr takes some seat of the pants vigilance.
4. I learned these trading systems employed in my grandfathers bank in Trinidad,, family retains partial interest, and I talk to the trading dept regularly and have a fx acc. there. Family being part of founding of current bank, a major Carib bank. (Trinidad rich in NG) uh huh.. Caribbean currency happenings are mostly utilized to balance each countries need to keep USD, Euro at good balance on the exchanges for tourists/commerce. thus buying more/less based on demand, our ole friend. But as sophistication reached... options, systems prevailed. I worked in this bank in currencies, after grad Univ of Miami, my birthplace, thus 2 citizenships. Mother was UofM professor,
no rub off on me tho, simple minded I am. I worked in commodities and currencies in NYC with major firm years back. Now totally private.
5. I don't need to market anything because I have managed to accumulate cash and assets last 20 yrs.
I like Jamaica, but not Jamaican. Have other biz interests around Carib and have stake in startup in PA as angel. Doubt it if you want, but dat how iz. Which brings up a point, big private trading account easier to trade than small accounts..10-100K. My trading friends make 4-8%/month of their account,
but even at 100K, that is only approx 5K/month income..w/o acc. growing!! Need more acc. dosh.
Always remember it matters whose money you are trading, OPM or YOURS. OPM take more chances.
6. You give WAY to much credit to the 'gangster' stop hunters unless you are on a bandit platform.
CB's don't sit and think how to 'trick' the market, they are using their model, which shud be 'trick free'.
They are grindstoned to eek profit, we can be in/out/sidelined. little jets.
7. Pair trading is as close to 'sure thing' as there is in market for private trader. I use 50% of time
when tunnels align both side. Very high % wins on those.
8. Take mucho time to calculate swap on, a/y for instance on your demo..
9. Money management makes the profits..find decent entry, mange the trade efficiently.
____________
btw, Dave's comprehension is very vast in markets and he likes fx now as virtual newcomer to it and scoring. It is his passion...an unnecessary endeavor financially...
my passion also..
forgive this breach, but since we touch around the seams on issues wanted to clarify..
as a caribyank I am by nature humble, but when trading we shud sit up and take confident control,
at risk of arrogance.
How abt concentrating on trading..and if you take issue on something I said re; fx, no surprise
but mho.
c u latr
what's the basis for your levels?
'as long as bias doesn't shift too much' is NOT a variable for selecting the correct r/r with all
account variables to consider.....38.6 of what, key lime pie?
trade or commentate like Ashraf.does
he has decided what every trader is waiting for lol
stay sidelined Ash and save ur Cash for chartz..I'll give you the long signal as always
catnip....anytime you put your target just inside mine and subs just two posts later..
guess what? you'll score 90% of time..:)) suggest you do it all the time..and offer no reasons, not needed.
Dave..of course the Canadians are trigger happy, they attacked the article, eh?
Dave? have you had a sitdown with Lone Ranger lol..
den crazy Brits :)
Dave..u are certainly a wise man with so much knowledge..a pleasure to listen to you on ANY subject..
and regarding trading, it is obvious to any vet fx trader that you have 'in depth' hands on with market movements, whys and wherefores...
If you were administrator on this forum...it could be marketed to large base...
(I know you don't want to do that)
So..yes on the 1 hr 21sma.the tunnel in it's purity measures momentum runs..back tested to show fibo
runs from the mid tunnel..of course when price is in the tunnel..a good r/r can be seen for short 55/89 pip
runs and allowing for longer moves..profit talking along the way is a key, as you see me banking early
partial moves...but all models have been thrown off axis lately with the 'fin crisis' . so the 1 hr has also
has its chops and inexplicable short term reverses..however, 4 hr overcomes this noise and produces the good momentum runs..
on 1 hr 21.. one could just trade that and catch the 'mid run' moves consistently' with the occasional
spike to tp or stop..
lagging is fine for me, you see
me waiting for validation of the laggers and then getting some of the run..not all of it like you can
with more pin point fibo levels, etc..
of course, we must all be wary of he channels and place our models against those in mho..
gonna look at charts see weekly, monthly,...
holdin E long from 4202..after banking almost all of the scenario last week.
later
21sma on daily is breakpoint mho = 4602
no possis
Jacek...congrats.u placed a full trade info with the variables..
worthy step...and it hit a spike..for big profits.
see, that wasn't so hard, was it?
Now act like you've been there before, and no 'spiking in the endzone' like POTUS said. :)
from the credit where credit is DUE dept.
g'morn Ashraf..good luck on the bullets
Dave..they are sailin morgan out of kingston for negril today..
had some touchup...I know she missies mi..